عنوان مقاله [English]
Energy as a strategic commodity has an impact on the economy of countries, accordingly, energy price changes affect different sectors of the economy, In addition, the uncertainty effects caused by the unpredictability of energy prices also have different effects on the country's economy, particularly on the road transport sector. Therefore, this study investigates the uncertainty effects of energy prices on the growth of the road transport sector over a period of 1989–2006.
In the present study, the effects of energy price uncertainty on the growth of the country's road transport sector are investigated. The EGARCH model is used to calculate energy price uncertainty. To estimate the main model, self-regression model with distributive interrupts was used and EVIEWS 10 software was used to estimate the model and interpret the results.
The results show that there is heterogeneity of conditional variance in the energy price and this means that there is uncertainty in the energy price. It also shows the results of the model estimation Which, both in the short and the long run, by increasing the proportion of investments made in the road transport sector on that sector's GDP, The economic growth of the road transport sector increase. Increasing the labor force in the road transport sector increases the value added of this sector And Energy consumption variable also has a positive effect on the growth of the road transport sector. Also, with rising energy price uncertainty both short and long term, the economic growth of the road transport sector reduces. Also considering the error correction factor in ECM model, It can be said that the adjustment speed was appropriate for the long-run equilibrium value, So that in each period about 0.43 error of equilibrium is adjusted and The short-run value tends to be exponential to its long-run equilibrium value.