قیمت‌گذاری عوارض آزادراه‌ها با توسعه مدل‌های اقتصادی در شرایط عدم قطعیت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی عمران- مهندسی حمل و نقل، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران

چکیده

استفاده از سرمایۀ بخش خصوصی راه‌حل پایدار و مناسب برای توسعه زیرساخت‌های حمل و نقل به خصوص آزادراه‌ها است. تحلیل اقتصادی احداث آزادراه‌ها در مرحله برنامه‌ریزی و تعیین نرخ اقتصادی عوارض در آنها لازمه جلب اطمینان سرمایه‌گذاران در این بخش است. اطلاع از نرخ عوارض در نقطه سربه‌سر اقتصادی و محاسبه دقیق شاخص‌های اقتصادی احداث آزادراه‌ها، ریسک سرمایه‌گذاری را برای سرمایه‌گذار خصوصی کم می‌کند. شناسایی موارد هزینه‌ای و درآمدی احداث آزادراه‌ها و تعریف رویکردی مشخص برای محاسبه نرخ عوارض با درنظر گرفتن ارزش زمانی پولی و عدم قعطیت هزینه‌ها و درآمدها یکی از چالش‌های پیشروی دولت در این صنعت است. در این مقاله، بر اساس اسناد مطالعه تعدادی آزادراه در کشور، موارد هزینه‌ای و درآمدی ساخت یک آزادراه شناسایی و به صورت سلسله مراتبی دسته‌بندی شده است. یکی از روش‌های تعیین نرخ عوارض در نقطه سربه‌سر، روش‌های اقتصاد مهندسی است. عموماً در این روش‌ها، موارد هزینه‌ای و درآمدی طرح ثابت و قطعی فرض می‌شوند. در حالیکه در واقعیت این مقادیر پیش‌بینی‌شده و غیرقطعی‌اند. در این مقاله، مدل‌های اقتصاد مهندسی در شرایط تصادفی‌بودن درآمدها و هزینهها تحت توزیع آماری بتا توسعه داده شده‌اند. دو مدل اقتصاد مهندسی برای تحلیل اقتصادی و تعیین نرخ عوارض آزادراه‌ها تحت قطعیت و عدم قطعیت درآمدها و هزینه‌ها و بر اساس ساختار شکست آنها ارائه شده است. جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل‌های پیشنهادی، نرخ اقتصادی عوارض در یکی از آزادراه‌های در حال احداث و بر اساس داده‌های مرحله مطالعاتی آن تعیین شده است. نتایج تحلیل اقتصادی نشان می‌دهد که تعیین نرخ عوارض به صورت سنتی برای سرمایه‌گذار بخش خصوصی جذابیتی ندارد و پیشنهاد می‌شود از رویکرد ارائه‌شده به جای رویکرد سنتی در تحلیل اقتصادی و قیمت‌گذاری عوارض استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Freeway Pricing Model by Development of Stochastic Economic Engineering Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Baradaran 1
  • Amirreza Kazempour-Fard 2
1 Associate Professor, Industrial Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc., Grad., Civil Engineering-Transportation Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tehran North Branch, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Each society needs the development of basic infrastructure, including the road. The use of private sector capital is a sustainable and appropriate solution for the development of transport infrastructure, especially freeways. The economic analysis of the freeways in the planning phase and the road pricing are necessary to trust the investors. The investment risk for private investors is reduced by calculating the economic toll rates. Identifying costs and revenues of freeways and defining an approach for calculating toll rates by considering the time value of money and uncertainty in estimation of the costs and revenues is one of the challenges in this industry. In this paper, the annual cost and revenue of a freeway identified and classified by studding documents of some road projects in Iran. Two economic engineering models are developed to determine the economic toll rate with certainty and uncertainty of parameters. The proposed method is implemented on one of the freeways and the results are compared with traditional analysis. The results show that the estimated toll on the freeway is not economically justified in the traditional way.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Freeway
  • Stochastic Economic Engineering
  • Economic Toll
  • Toll
  • Freeway Pricing
-AECOM, (2018), “Spon’s Civil Engineering and Highway Works Price Book 2018”, Thirty-second edition, Taylor & Francis.
-Afandizadeh, S., Ahmadinejad, M. and Arbabi, N., (2011), “The method of calculating the value of appropriate complications in the pricing of urban roads using genetic algorithm”, Rahvar, Vol. 8, No. 16, pp. 83-98. (In Persian).
-Agarwal, S., Mo Koo, K. and Foo Sing, T., (2015), “Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 90, pp. 50–59.
-Blank, L. T. and Tarquin, A. J., (2017), “Engineering Economy, Edition 8”,
McGraw-Hill Education.
-Brockenbrough, R. L., (2009), “Highway Engineering Handbook: Building and Rehabilitating the Infrastructure”, Third Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
 
 
-Cambridge Systematics and Resource Systems Group, (2008), “Effective practices for congestion management. In: prepared as part of national cooperative highway research program (NCHRP) Project”, Transportation Research Board, Vol. 63, pp. 20–24.
-Chen, D. and Xu, D., (2021), “Ridesharing user equilibrium with nodal matching cost and its implications for congestion tolling and platform pricing, Transportation Research Part C, Vol. 129, pp. 103233. 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103233.
-Chen, X., Zhu, Z. and Zhang, L., (2015), “Simulation-based optimization of mixed road pricing policies in a large real-world network”, Transportation Research Procardia, Vol. 8,
pp. 215-226.
-Chen, Z., Ye, H., Liu, B. and Xue, W., (2021), “Analysis of road capacity and franchise price decision delegation in toll road BOT project”, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 146, pp.102213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2020.102213.
-De Palma, A. and Lindsey, R., (2011), “Traffic congestion pricing methodologies and technologies”, Transportation Research Part C Vol. 19, pp. 1377–1399.
-Dong, B. Guo, G. and Wang, Y., (2012), “Highway toll pricing”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 220, pp. 744–751.
E‌s‌h‌t‌e‌h‌a‌r‌d‌i‌a‌n, E., K‌h‌a‌n‌z‌a‌di, M. and F‌a‌r‌s‌h‌a‌d H. (2015), “Statistical Analysis to Determine Level of Risk in Existing Uncertainty of Freeway Contracts by the BOT Method, Case Study: Saveh Freeway Salafchegan”, Sharif Journal Civil Engineering, Vol. 31.2, No. 32, pp. 3-8 (In Persian).
-Falcocchio and Levinson, (2015), “Road Traffic Congestion: A Concise Guide”, Springer, (chapter 19).
-Findley, D.J., Schroeder, B.J., Cunningham, C.M. and Brown, T.H., (2016), “Highway Engineering”, Elsevier Inc.
-Gibson, M. and Carnovale, M., (2015), “The effects of road pricing on driver behavior and air pollution”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 89, pp. 62–73.
-Guo, Q., Sun, Y., Li, Z-C and Li, Z., (2017), “An integrated model for road capacity choice and cordon toll pricing”, Research in Transportation Economics, xxx, pp.1-12.
-Jahad Daneshgahi of Tarbiat Modares University (JDTMU), (2008), “Guidebook for the Study of the Technical and Economic Justification of Road and Rail Projects”, Transportation Research Institute. (In Persian).  
-Jang, K., Chung, K. and Yeo, H., (2015), “A dynamic pricing strategy for high occupancy toll lanes”, Transportation Research Part A., Vol. 67, pp. 69–80.
-Mansourkhaki, A., Moosavi, S. R. and Rezaee-Arjroodi, A., (2017), “Calculating the Operational Costs Decrement in the Economic Evaluation of the Roads Rehabilitation (Case Study: Fasa-Zahedshahr), Amirkabir Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 165-173. (In Persian).
-Murali Adurthi, N., Santosh Bari, C., Navandar, Y. and Dhamaniy, A., (2022), “A Study on User Acceptable Road Pricing Policy for Toll Roads: A Case of Eethakota, India, Transportation Research Procedia”, Vol. 62, pp. 656-663.
-Neyshabouri, A. and Usefnejad Attari, M. (2012), “The pricing of passageways to traffic constraints using genetic algorithms”, Journal of Transportation Research, Vol. 9, No. 4,
pp. 409-417 (In Persian).
-Oskounejad, M.M., (2010), “Engineering Economy, Economic Evaluation of Industrial Projects”, Amirkabir University of Technology Publication, Tehran (In Persian).
-Perez, BG., Batac, T. and Vovska, P., (2012), “NCHRP Report 722: assessing highway tolling and pricing options, volume 1: decision-making framework”­, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.
-Phan, T., Annaswamy, A.M., Yanakiev, D. and Tseng, E., (2011), “A model-based Dynamic Toll Pricing Strategy for Controlling Highway Traffic”, American Control Conference (ACC), Boston, USA.
-Rouwendal, J. and Verhoef, E. T., (2006), “Basic economic principles of road pricing: From theory to applications”, Transport Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 106–114.
-Saffarzadeh, M., Khaksari, A. and Fakhroo, A., (2005), “Providing Technical Economical Model for the Construction and Operation Freeway and Highway”, Journal of Transportation Research, Vol. 2, No. 2,
pp. 35-47. (In Persian).
-Sinha, K.C. and Labi, S., (2007), “Transportation Decision Making, Principal of Project Evaluation and Programming”, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
-Swami, H., Bari, C. and Ashish Dhamaniya, A., (2021), “Developing Policy Framework of Dynamic Toll Pricing in India”, Transportation Research Procedia, Vol. 52, pp. 605-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.01.072.
Tabatabaee, S. A. and Rahman, A., (2009), “The Importance and Place of Maintenance in Iran”, the First National Conference on Engineering and Infrastructure Management, Tehran, Iran (In Persian).
-Theisen, T., (2020), “The impact of an urban toll ring on housing prices”, Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 82,
pp. 100882.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100882.
-Yildirim, M. B. and Hearn, D. W., (2006), “A first best toll pricing framework for variable demand trac assignment problems”, Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 39,
pp. 659–678.