Journal of Transportation Research

Journal of Transportation Research

Scenario Analysis of Urban Transport Fleet Fuel Mix and Its Impacts on Energy Consumption and Air Pollutant Emissions in Mashhad Metropolis Using the LEAP Modeling Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Abolfazl Yari 1
Khosro Ashrafi 2
Mohammad Ali Zahed 3
1 Ph.D., Student, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Kish, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/tri.2025.548702.3382
Abstract
Rapid population growth, rising transportation demand, and high dependency on fossil fuels have significantly increased air pollution and energy consumption in Iran's metropolitan areas. This study evaluates and compares different fuel mix scenarios for the urban transport fleet in Mashhad by 2050, using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Three scenarios were developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Clean Transition (CT), and Targeted Green Transformation (TGT), analyzing their impacts on energy use and PM2.5 emissions. Findings reveal that under the BAU scenario, reliance on gasoline and diesel continues, leading to increased energy consumption and air pollution. In contrast, the TGT scenario—focusing on the replacement of fossil-fueled vehicles with electric and hybrid ones, along with improvements in fuel quality—achieves up to a 50% reduction in PM2.5 emissions. Sensitivity analyses on key variables such as economic growth rate, electrification share, and fuel efficiency indicate that energy efficiency policies and clean transport development play a critical role in reducing environmental pollutants. The study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies on sustainable transport planning and support for emerging clean energy technologies in large urban centers.
Keywords
Energy optimization
PM2.5 emissions
Urban transport fleet
LEAP modeling
Sustainable transport
Subjects
 
 
 
 
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