Journal of Transportation Research

Journal of Transportation Research

Econometric Analysis of Container Ships Market With an Emphasis on Shipping Freight Rate

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
sahar Motamedi 1
Seyed Nasser Saeidi 2
Fatemeh Hosseinpour 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Marine Insurance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khorramshahr University of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Khorramshahr, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Marine Insurance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khorramshahr University of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Khorramshahr, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Marine Insurance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khorramshahr University of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Khorramshahr, Iran.
10.22034/tri.2023.351880.3065
Abstract
Determining the shipping freight rate for the container ships market is crucially important in directing the market and taking long-term decisions in global trade. This study employed the annual data of container Throughput (CPT), container Freight rate (Fr), container fleet capacity (FC), and the Brent oil price from1995 to 2020 to investigate the role of Freight rate in the container ships market. The data were collected from the reviews reported on marine transportation by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in various years. This study examined the direct effect of each of the variables on the freight rate, as well as their mutual effects on each other. Accordingly, first, two single-equations were estimated using the ARDL method. Then, the equation systems were estimated within the three-stage least squares (3SLS). The results revealed the significant positive effects of Fr and CPT and the significant negative effects of the Brent oil price on FC in the long run. The results also showed the significant positive effects of the CPT on Fr and the significant negative effects of FC on Fr. Having estimated the long-term relationship, the error correction model was estimated as well. The results of the error correction model indicated that the error correction coefficient in both models was negative and significant, thus, the model converges toward the long term. Then, the models were resolved jointly using the 3SLS equation system. The results confirmed the findings on the long-term relationship.
Keywords
Maritime Trade
Container Shipping
Container Ship Freight Rates
Subjects
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