Journal of Transportation Research

Journal of Transportation Research

Asymmetric and Nonlinear Effects of Transportation Price Index on Urban Household Housing Sector Inflation in the Iranian Economy: NARDL Model and Quantile Regression

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mir Hadi Hosseini Kondelaji 1
Davoud Mahmoudinia 2
Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Arak University, Arak, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran.
3 Visiting Scholar, Faculty of Business, Athabasca University, Edmonton, Canada; Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
10.22034/tri.2025.549798.3385
Abstract
Given the significant share of housing and transportation costs in the household consumption basket, along with the expansion of public transportation as a key urban development policy, examining the relationship between their price indices is critically important. This study investigates the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of the transportation price index on urban housing sector inflation in Iran using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and quantile regression. The primary objective is to determine how positive and negative shocks to transportation prices asymmetrically affect housing inflation and to analyze these effects across different levels of the housing inflation distribution. The results from cointegration and NARDL tests on monthly data from 2004 to 2023 confirm a long-run asymmetric relationship. This indicates that the effect of positive transportation price shocks on housing inflation differs from that of negative shocks. Quantile regression sensitivity analysis reinforced these findings, showing that the impact of the transportation price index varies significantly across different quantiles of housing inflation. Additionally, the nonlinear model confirms a positive relationship between oil prices, the rental index, and housing prices in both the short and long run. These findings provide a foundation for designing more effective policies to control housing inflation and stabilize the market.
Keywords
transportation prices
housing inflation
asymmetric effects
nonlinearity
urban household
Subjects
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