Journal of Transportation Research

Journal of Transportation Research

Scenario-Based Modeling of Strategic Evolution of Intelligent Transportation Systems in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Dept. of Civil Engineering, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran
2 Ph. D. Department of Knowledge and Information Science, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran.
10.22034/tri.2026.572413.3435
Abstract
Since monitoring and evaluating the achievement of long-term goals in organizations is a vital matter, the present study examines and assesses the Strategic Plan for Transportation of Iran using a foresight approach. This research was conducted using a mixed-methods approach (Quantitative-Qualitative), relying on literature review. Data were collected through cross-impact analysis and scenario building. The final analysis was performed using MICMAC and ScenarioWizard software, as well as the opinions of transportation experts. Data analysis using ScenarioWizard software indicated that the probability of occurrence for 9 scenarios was higher than for others, and 297 scenarios had a low probability of occurrence. Among these 9 scenarios, 4 scenarios were identified as stronger. The first scenario was introduced as the most dominant; however, this scenario depicts an undesirable situation where all driving forces are in a critical state. The second, third, and fourth scenarios were ranked sequentially afterward. To ensure the fulfillment of the objectives set out in the National Intelligent Transportation Strategic Document, it is essential for responsible organizations to take immediate action regarding the enhancement of policy-making and system management levels, the provision of technical infrastructure, and the allocation of necessary resources.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 30 May 2026