Estimating the effects of Factors on Dwell Time in Bus Stops and forecast Dwell time parameter in Tehran Bus Transportation System

Bus system is one of the most important public transportation systems. Increasing user’s satisfaction and optimal usage of existing facilities without planning is impossible. Dwell time in bus stops is one of the parameters that affect on quality of plans in this system. By identifying the factors that affect on dwell time and forecasting dwell time parameter, we can develop proper strategies to reduce dwell time and decrease both in vehicle and waited passenger’s satisfaction in stops. In this paper, we studied Tehran bus system and indentified the factors can affect on dwell time parameter and gathered some data about dwell time from this system. Also we used regression analysis to estimate the effects of some these factors such as number of alighted and boarded passengers in stops on dwell time parameter. Base on gathered data, we evaluated some exited functions in previous studies related to forecast dwell time parameter and developed a proper model to forecast it. By microscopic analyzing of stop process and statistical analyzing of parameters such as time and number of passengers that alighted and boarded in stops, we designed new discrete event simulation model base on Enterprise Dynamics software. We used this model to evaluate the strategies can improve dwell time and estimate the effects of other factors that we could not gather data about these factors in our case study on dwell time parameter. The results represent, the dwell time of buses in stops can be reduced by changing in payment fare system from tradition system to electronic payment system about 23 percent. The place of stops in this system has not effect on dwell time parameter or gender of passengers is not important to estimate duration of stopping in stations.