The Analysis of Tanker Shipping Market and Factors Affecting Freight Rate

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Abstract

Demand for Maritime transportation is derived from International transactions between countries. Hence, in this research in addition to Scrapping tanker price, freight rate determinants such as new-building and second-hand tanker price, the role of seaborne trade is considered. To study the tanker market, we used data between 1987 and 2010, extracted from the Clarkson Research Studies. As causality was not predetermined, in order to discover a co-integration relation and causality direction, a VAR and VECM is applied following appropriate Unit root tests. According to results, unlike short run dynamics, new-building and second-hand tanker price and seaborne trade volume have affected freight rate in long run. Moreover, in short run, freight rate, seaborne trade volume and second-hand tanker price affect new-building price. Finally, the increase in seaborne trade volume, after one period adjustment, tends to increase in freight rate. This impact is temporary.
 
 
 

Keywords

References

  - پورمشکی، س. و شهرابی فراهانی­، ز. (۱۳۸۵)،
"مدل اقتصادی در تخمین قیمت انواع کشتی­های دست دوم"، هشتمین همایش ملی صنایع دریایی ایران، بوشهر، انجمن مهندسی دریایی ایران.
 -سیاره، جعفر؛ ح.ع.، م.م.، و نورامین­، م.س.، (1390)، "­پیش بینی بازار کرایه حمل فله خشک در سال­های 2011 و 2012 "، مجله علوم و فنون دریایی، دوره 10، شماره 2، تابستان 1390، ص. 79-90.
 -طبخی­، ح.ر. (1388)، "مطالعه و ارزیابی کنوانسیون بازیافت کشتی­ها با تاکید ویژه بر اجرای آن در چابهار"­، پایان­نامه کارشناسی­، دانشگاه دریانوردی و علوم دریایی، چابهار، ص. 45-43.
 -Adland, R., Cariou, P. and Wolff,F.C.(2016),Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 86, February 2016, 
pp.69-82.
 -Adland, R., Jia, H. and Strandenes, S. (2006), "Asset bubbles in shipping? An analysis of recent history in the dry bulk market", Maritime Economics & Logistics, Vol. 8, pp.223–233.
 - Adland, R. Jia,H and Jing Lu (2008),
"­Price dynamics in the market for Liquid Petroleum Gas transport", Energy Economics, Vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 818-828.
 -Alizadeh A. H., Wayne K. Talley (2011), "Vessel and voyage determinants of tanker freight rates and contract times", Transport Policy, Vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 665-675.
 Dikos, G. (2004), "New building prices: demand inelastic or perfectly competitive?" Maritime Economics & Logistics, Vol. 6, pp.312–321.
 Dikos, G., Marcus, H.S., Papadatos, M.P., Papakonstantinou, V. (2006), "A 
system-dynamics approach to tanker freight modeling", Vol. 36, No. 4, pp.326-341.
 -Jing Xua,J.­, Tsz Leung Yipb, Peter B. Marlow. (2011), The dynamics between freight volatility and fleet size growth in dry bulk shipping markets, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 47, Issue 6, November, Pages 983–991.
 -Kavussanos, M. G. (2003), "Time Varying Risks among Segments of the Tanker Freight Markets", Maritime Economics & Logistics, vol. 5, no.3, pp. 227–250.
 -Leach, P. (2004), "If it moves, charter it", Journal of Commerce, August 2,
Vol. 5.
 -Lei Dai, Hao Hu, Feier Chen, and Jianing Zheng (2014), Volatility transmission in the dry bulk new building and secondhand markets: an empirical research, Transportation Letters 
Vol. 6 , Iss. 2, 2014.
  -Lyridis DV, Zacharioudakis P, Mitrou P, Mylonas A (2004), "Forecasting tanker market using.
 -Artificial neural networks", Maritime Economic Logistics. Vol. 6, No.1, 
pp.93–108.
 -Lun YHV, Quaddus MA (2009), "An empirical model for the bulk shipping market",Shipping and Transport Logistics, vol.1, No.1, pp. 37–54.
 -Lun, Y.H.V., Hilmola, O.-P., Goulielmos, A.M., Lai, K.-h.,Cheng, T.C.E. (2013), "The Tanker Shipping Market", Springer Verlag London.
 -Nomikos, N., & Alizadeh, A. (2009)," Shipping Derivatives and Risk Management", Palgrave Macmillan.
 -Oliveira, G.F. (2014), Determinants of European freight rates: The role of market power and trade imbalance, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 62, pp. 23–33.
 -Randers, J. and Goluke, U. (2007), "Forecasting Turning Points in shipping freight rates: Lesson from 30 years of practical effort", Oslo, Norway.
 -Stopford, M. (2009), "Maritime Economics", Routledge, London and New York.
 -Stopford, M. (2002), "The Handbook of Maritime Economics and Business", London, pp. 203-224.
 -Sun Xiaolei, Ling Tan, Yuying Yang Dengsheng Wu, Jianping Li (2014), "Identifying the dynamic relationship between tanker freight rates and oil prices: In the perspective of multistate relevance", Economic Modeling, Vol. 42, pp. 287–295.
 -Tamvakis, M.N. and Thanopoulou, H.A. (2000), "Does quality pay? The case of the dry bulk market. Transportation Research Part E", Logistics and Transportation Review, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 297-307.
 -Tirole J (2003), "The theory of industrial organization", The MIT Press, Cambridge.
 -Tsolakis, S.D., Cridland, C. and Haralambides, H.E. (2003), "Econometric modeling of second-hand ship prices", Maritime Economics & Logistics, Vol. 5, pp. 347–377.
 -UNCTAD (2014), "Review of Maritime Transport", United Nations Publications, New York & Geneva.
Journal of Transportation Research
Volume 14, Issue 1
March 2017
Pages 142-156

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics