A Dynamic Model of Traffic Accidents leads to Injury and Death in Tehran Caused by Human and Vehicle Factors

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

2 Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

Abstract

Iran is in the third placed of death caused by traffic accidents in the world and human factors and vehicle factors are the most important effective factors on it. This paper aims to present a dynamic model of traffic accidents leads to injury and death caused by human and vehicle factors. To study factors, the data collected by literature review and open interview by 15 experts chosen as researchers’ judgment. Dynamic model is plotted by VENSIM based on system dynamics approach after determining causal relations between human factors and vehicle factors with traffic accidents. To validate the model by system behavior reproduction test, the data collected from traffic police from 2015 to 2016. Coefficient of determination between real data and simulated data determined 0.998. The model was simulated from 2016 to 2026 to analyze current and future policies. As a result, in terms of human factors accidents because of disabled people and in terms of vehicle factors light system have the greatest increase by keeping on current policies. For human factors, the greatest reduction in accidents related to unnecessary rush. Moreover, for vehicle factors, among the vehicle's drivers, the three factors of lack of wheel chains, the lack of a wiper and the failure of the steering system due to policies such as stringent laws and regulations and culture, are significantly reduced.

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Journal of Transportation Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 27 June 2018

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