مدل‌سازی پویای برخی سیاست‌های مدیریتی در تخلیه اضطراری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

10.22034/tri.2021.281767.2895

چکیده

منظور از تخلیه اضطراری، انتقال جمعیت در یک زمان محدود از یک ناحیه به ناحیه دیگر در زمان بحران است. هدف اصلی این فرایند، انتقال مردم به خارج از محدوده‌ بحران با حداکثر سرعت ممکن است. لذا به‌کارگیری سیاست‌های مدیریتی جهت کاهش زمان تخلیه از محدوده خطر می‌تواند نقشی حیاتی در کمینه کردن پیامدهای منفی بحران‌ها داشته باشد. هدف پژوهش جاری، مدل‌سازی جهت بررسی تأثیر برخی سیاست‌های مدیریتی شامل تغییر جهت خیابان، تعیین مسیرهای بهینه تخلیه و فازبندی تخلیه و پیاده‌سازی آن برای شبکه سوفالز جهت تحلیل نحوه عملکرد شبکه بعد از اجرای سیاست‌های پیشنهادی است. ازجمله نوآوری‌های این پژوهش، استفاده از تخصیص ترافیک پویا و ابزار شبیه‌سازی است که برخلاف رویکرد مطالعات پیشین است که از مدل‌های ریاضی معمول و روش‌های ابتکاری با فرض ثبات شرایط ترافیک و تخصیص ترافیک ایستا استفاده کردند. در این پژوهش، فرآیند تخلیه‌ی اضطراری برای نمونه موردی شبکه سوفالز و با هدف کمینه کردن زمان تخلیه اضطراری در نرم‌افزار ویزوم شبیه‌سازی شده است. یافته‌های سناریوهای مختلف نشانگر آن است که حجم تقاضا و فازبندی تخلیه (در قالب تابع توزیع تقاضا) ازجمله عوامل مؤثر در زمان تخلیه اضطراری است اما تقاضای تخلیه نسبت به نوع تابع توزیع تقاضا دارای تاثیر بیشتری است. همچنین، اعمال سیاست‌های پیشنهادی (تحت سناریوهای مختلف احجام تقاضا و فازبندی‌های تخلیه) باعث کاهش 10 تا 30 درصدی در زمان تخلیه شبکه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Modeling of Management Policies for Emergency Evacuation

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Reza Mamdoohi 1
  • Mahdi Shariati 2
  • Mohsen Nazemi 2
  • Mohammadhossein Abbasi 3
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc., Grad., Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Evacuation is the transfer of population from one area to another in a limited time during disasters. The main goal of this process is to transfer people out of the risky area as quickly as possible to reduce casualties. Therefore applying management policies to reduce the duration of evacuation can play a vital role in minimizing the negative effects of crises. This paper aims to investigate the impact of some management policies such as contraflowing, determining the optimal evacuation routes and evacuation phasing in Sioux Falls network and the network performance after applying the proposed policies. Among the contributions of this paper can be mentioned that the previous models are often based on static traffic assignment, conventional mathematical models and heuristic methods in which traffic conditions are considered constant during the simulation period. However, due to the dynamic and unstable nature of the emergency evacuation process, dynamic traffic assignment and traffic simulation tools can be considered as a valuable alternative to develop suitable and dynamic emergency evacuation planning to facilitate the decision-making process to determine optimal measures. Therefore, the emergency evacuation process for a case study of the Sioux Falls network is simulated in Visum as a computer simulation software and the objective function is to minimize the time required for emergency evacuation. After simulating different scenarios, the research findings indicate that the volume of demand and phasing of evacuation are among the factors affecting the duration of emergency evacuation. Also, a reduction of network evacuation time by 10 to 30% was observed after the implementation of the proposed policies with different demand volumes and emergency evacuation phasing. Finally, it can be seen that changes in the amount of evacuation demand lead to more changes in the amount of reduction in evacuation time than the type of demand distribution function.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Emergency Evacuation Planning
  • Crisis Management
  • Contra Flowing
  • Dynamic Assignment
  • Computer Simulation

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