مدل‌سازی رفتار عابرین پیاده در انتخاب زمان عبور از مقطع عرضی معابر شهری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد‌، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

4 دانشیار، گروه عمران-برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

بیش از یک پنجم افرادی که در سراسر دنیا جان خود را در اثر تصادفات رانندگی از دست می‌دهند، عابرین پیاده هستند. مرگ و میر و جراحات عابرین پیاده اغلب قابل اجتناب است و می‌توان با اقدامات مختلف ایمنی و پیش‌بینی برخی عوامل اصلی تأثیرگذار در رفتار عابران هنگام مواجه آن‌ها با موقعیت‌های خطرساز تصمیمات واکنشی‌شان را بهبود بخشید. در این مقاله به منظور پیش‌بینی رفتار عابرین پیاده شهر تهران در هنگام مواجه با تقاطعات چراغدار و تعیین متغیرهای اصلی و تأثیرگذار بر فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری آن‌ها حرکت عبوری عابران به کمک دوربین‌های نظارت تصویری برداشت شد و سپس ویژگی‌های رفتاری همان عابران با پرسشنامه‌ای برداشت شد. . به منظور تعیین اهمیت و تأثیرگذاری هر یک از متغیرهای برداشت شده در فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری عابر، ساخت و پرداخت یک مدل لوجیت دوگانه در دستور کار قرار گرفت. همچنین در ادامه، جهت تعیین تأثیر متقابل متغیرهای آشکار و پنهان برهم و تفصیل نحوه تأثیرگذاری آنها در رفتار عابرپیاده اقدام به مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری گردید. نتایج مقایسه تطبیقی دو مدل نشان داد که تأثیر متغیرهای روانشاختی در مدل معادلات ساختاری خود را نشان می‌دهد و متغیرهای محیطی و ترافیکی به کمک مدل لوجیت قابل توصیف‌اند. همچنین مشخص شدکه تأثیر رفتار سایر عابرین بر رفتار عابر مورد نظر در هر دو مدل بسیار با اهمیت و معنادار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the Behavior of Pedestrians in Choosing the Time to Cross Urban Intersections

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahriar Afandizadeh 1
  • Milad Sashourpour 2
  • ُShahin Hassani 3
  • Hamid Mirzahossein 4
1 Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc., Grad., School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 M.Sc., Grad., School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Civil - Transportation Planning, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This paper outlines the behavior of pedestrians in crossing signalized intersections and finds the main and effective variables that influence violation behavior in Tehran. For that purpose, required data was collected by recording pedestrian behavior then asking them to complete questionnaires. A binary logit (BL) model was developed to determine the influence and significance of each collected variable in the decision-making process. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to determine the interaction between observed and hidden variables and describe how they influence behavioral intention. After collecting the questionnaires and removing the false ones, 304 valid questionnaires remained. The structural model results showed that attitude, perceived behavior control, and the presence of other pedestrians directly influence behavior intention. As a result, when a pedestrian believes that breaking the law will save time or be a convenient way out, the chance of breaking the law increases. It also increases when they perceive more control over the behavior. Subjective norms and sex, on the other hand, have an indirect influence on intention. Since men feel more control over their behavior, they are more likely to violate it. The binary logit model results showed that the violation probability is higher among men than women. It is also more probable that pedestrians aged 25 to 29 violate the law more often at intersections. The existence of other pedestrians waiting for the green light can reduce the violation probability, and the presence of other violators can increase it. Increasing the speed of the approaching vehicle will decrease the violation probability. A comparison between the two models showed that SEM could describe the impact of psychological variables better, and BL could better define traffic and condition-related variables. On the other hand, the effect of other pedestrians on behavior is significant in both models.
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کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pedestrian
  • Signalized Intersection
  • Binary Logit (BL) Model
  • Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

مراجع

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