نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 وزارت راه وترابری پژوهشکده حمل ونقل
2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Examining the economic growth drivers of transportation is very important. One of the factors affecting the economic growth of transportation is macroeconomic shocks. Considering the importance and role of macroeconomic shocks in the economic growth of the transportation sector, this study examines the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the transportation sector. For this purpose, the significance of the variables has been investigated by using the additional variable test method to investigate the existence of a long-term relationship or the existence of co-occurrence between the variables and the results showed that among the variables of added value of the transportation sector, total added value, inflation rate, liquidity And there is a long-term relationship between the exchange rate and the exchange rate. The results of the short-term and long-term test related to the estimation of the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the transportation sector showed that all variables are significant. Unpredicted positive value-added shocks, unpredicted negative inflation rate shocks, unpredicted positive liquidity shocks, and unpredicted negative exchange rate shocks have a positive effect on the added value of the transportation sector. Also, the unanticipated negative shocks of added value, the unanticipated positive shocks of the inflation rate, the unanticipated negative shocks of liquidity and the unanticipated positive shocks of the exchange rate have a negative effect on the added value of the transportation sector. In the continuation of the results of the hypothesis test of asymmetry of positive and negative shocks of the variables, the results showed that the variables have asymmetric effects on the added value of the transportation sector. Also, the results of the stability test and diagnosis of the results showed that the coefficients of the variables are stable during the investigated period and there is no structural failure in the model.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)