داده کاوی عوامل مرتبط در حمل اضافه‌تناژ وسایل نقلیه باری در معابر درون‌شهری تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته دکتری، گروه مهندسی عمران، گرایش برنامه‌ریزی حمل‌ونقل، دانشگاه علم ‌و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، گرایش برنامه‌ریزی حمل‌ونقل، دانشگاه علم ‌و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف این مطالعه، شناسایی فاکتورهای مهم و تاثیرگذار در ارتکاب رانندگان ناوگان باری به تخلف اضافه تناژ در مسیرهای بزرگراهی درون‌شهری تهران و بررسی اثرگذاری هر کدام از متغیرها در ارتکاب به این تخلف رانندگی است. برای رسیدن به این هدف، اطلاعات مورد نیاز پژوهش از طریق برداشت میدانی در 10 ایستگاه در محورهای بزرگراهی درون‌شهری تهران برداشت گردید. بدین ترتیب که اطلاعات تناژ وسایل نقلیه باری با استفاده از یک جفت باسکول پرتابل و همچنین سایر اطلاعات موردنیاز شامل اطلاعات راننده، وسیله نقلیه، بار و سفر از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه برداشت شده و پس از اصلاح و حذف داده‌های ناقص، به تعداد 856 نمونه اطلاعاتی برای انجام تحلیل‌های آماری، مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج مدل‌های آماری و تحلیل‌های لجستیک باینری نشان داد که بیشترین احتمال حمل اضافه تناژ در محورهای درون‌شهری برای بارهای از نوع ساختمانی بدست آمده است. همچنین نتایج مدل‌سازی در بخش نوع مسیر تردد نیز نشان داد که بیشترین احتمال حمل اضافه بار برای بارهای داخلی (مبدأ و مقصد داخل تهران) و کمترین آن برای بارهای عبوری (مبدأ و مقصد خارج از تهران) است. در انتها نیز این نتیجه حاصل شد که احتمال ارتکاب به تخلف اضافه تناژ توسط رانندگان باری در روزهای تعطیل در حدود 18 برابر روزهای کاری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Data mining approach on significant variables affecting lorry drivers overloading in Tehran urban roads

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ehsan Ayazi 1
  • Abdolreza Sheikholeslami 2
1 Ph.D., Grad., Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is to identify the important factors influencing lorry drivers overloading on Tehran's highways and to investigate the effect of each variables in committing this violation. To this end, the required information was collected through field surveys at 10 stations on the Tehran urban highways. The tonnage data of freight vehicles were collected using a pair of portable scales as well as other information needed including driver information, vehicle, load and travel by completing the questionnaire. After correcting or deleting incomplete data, 856 data records were used for statistical analysis. The results of statistical models and binary logistic analyzes showed that the highest probability of overloading in the inner-city axes was obtained for construction loads. Also, the results of modeling in traffic type section showed that the highest likelihood of overload for internal loads (origin and destination inside Tehran) and the least probability of overburden (origin and destination outside of Tehran) were obtained. Finally, it was concluded that drivers are more likely to commit overloading on weekends.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Traffic Safety
  • Lorry Driver’s Offenses
  • Load Transportation
  • Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

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