نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
استادیار (مدعو)، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Inflation is a detrimental economic phenomenon and imposes high economic and social costs on societies at high rates, but the main economic damage of inflation is the uncertainty about its future value. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship and the uncertainty effect of inflation on capital in the road transport sector during the period 1991-1995. In the present study, the economic effects of inflation uncertainty on Investment in the country's road transport sector are investigated. The EGARCH model is used to calculate inflation rate uncertainty. To estimate the main model, self-regression model with distributed interpolation is used and EVIEWS10 software is used to estimate the model and interpret the results. The results show that there is a conditional heteroscedasticity in the inflation rate, which means that there is uncertainty in the inflation rate. Also, the results of the model estimation show that both in the short run and in the long run as the GDP increases, investment in road transport increases and with rising inflation uncertainty, investment in road transport will decrease. Interest rates, both in the short and long run, have a negative impact on investment in the road transport sector. Also with respect to the error correction factor in the ECM model it can be stated that the adjustment rate is appropriate to the equilibrium and long-run value, So that in each period, about 0.36 error of equilibrium is adjusted and in the short run tends to equilibrium and exponentially in the long run.