1 دانشیار، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
3 عضو هیئت علمی و دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی و برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل دانشکده عمران،
4 تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
In this paper results of the information collection application regarding the occurrence of approaching a model that predicts the accidents intensity. The modeling method used in this research is based on the logistic regression or its substitutes like Probit and dual Logit. At the first stage, by using the public Probit model and defining a parameter with four grades that is illustrative of the intensity of accidents, the independent parameters to be considered have been selected using the results of statistical Wald test.At the second stage, the intensity parameter has been converted to a dual parameter and by using the various compositions of independent parameters, various models for accidents intensity have been approached by dual Logit method. In this research, the modeling principles by logistic regression method have been analyzed and the substitute methods have also been comparatively investigated, and the effect of various independent accident parameters on the accidents intensity has been studied. The study of the effect of parameters on the intensity of accidents showed that there are some reasons responsible for the accidents. It is shown in this paper that applications of the results of Logit and Probit models regarding prediction of motorcycles accidents are almost the same and both are statistically credible.Various parameters regarding the climatic conditions, drivers' conditions, vehicles conditions etc… are the inputs of the system as independent variants and the effect of those variants that according to statistical test are credible, have been investigated. Results of this research not only have provided the possibility for prediction of motorcycles accidents intensity using Probit at 4 grade intensity, but also showed that some parameters are mostly responsible for the intensity of accidents.These factors include the vagueness of the driving licenses of the guilty drivers, occurrence of the accidents between 4-6 am, involvement of buses or mini buses in the accidents, occurrence of accidents in highways or ring roads, crashing of motorcycles with heavy vehicles and inefficiency of traffic signs. These are the major parameters responsible for the increased intensity of motorcycles accidents and should be considered in safety programmes regarding motorcycles drivers.