رویکرد اختیارات نامتعارف در تسهیم ریسک درآمد آزادراه‌های مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده معماری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده معماری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تسهیم ریسک درآمد پروژه‌های راهسازی مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی مسأله‌‌ای چالشی است که تئوری اختیارات یکی از رویکردهای متداول حل آن محسوب می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش، با چشم‌اندازی فراتر از اختیارات استاندارد رایج در مدلسازی راهکارهای این مسأله، پیشنهاد تعدادی از اختیارات نامتعارف کاربردی در طراحی مکانیزم‌های تسهیم ریسک درآمد این پروژه‌ها و روش ارزیابی و مقایسه آن‌ها است. در این پژوهش، طی مجموعه‌ مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته‌ای، نظرات خبرگان درباره بازتاب اختیارات نامتعارف پیشنهادی در تسهیم ریسک درآمد پروژه‌های آزادراهی مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی دریافت شد. سپس با تحلیل محتوای حاصل از مصاحبه‌ها، کاربرد این اختیارات در تسهیم ریسک درآمد پروژه‌های مورد مطالعه روشن، و مکانیزم‌های پیشنهادی طراحی شد. پیش‌بینی درآمدهای ‌پروژه طی بهره‌برداری، طبق مدل حرکت براونی هندسی و ارزیابی مقدار پرداختی اختیارات حاضر در این مکانیزم‌ها، با شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو انجام شد. نهایتاً، کاربرد مکانیزم‌های پیشنهادی در یک پروژه واقعی آزموده شد. نتایج این پژوهش به‌عنوان تمهیداتی نوین در تسهیم ریسک درآمد پروژه، از دولت و بخش خصوصی، به‌عنوان ذینفعان اصلی پروژه‌های آزادراهی مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی در مسیر الف) طراحی مکانیزم‌های کارآمد و دقیق تسهیم ریسک درآمد، ب) شبیه‌سازی درآمدها طی بهره‌برداری، پ) محاسبه پرداختی نهایی مکانیزم‌ها با الگوی اختیارات و ت) ارزیابی طیف ریسک ذینفعان با ترجیحات متنوع ریسک‌پذیری در مکانیزم‌های مختلف، پشتیبانی می‌کنند. این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که اختیارات نامتعارف می‌توانند دقت، قابلیت و انعطاف مکانیزم‌های تسهیم ریسک درآمد پروژه‌های آزادراهی مشارکت عمومی-خصوصی را بهبود ببخشند و دولت و بخش خصوصی را به وضعیت برد-برد، از مسیر مکانیزمی که انتظارات و استراتژی‌های هر دو طرف را برآورده می‌کند، هدایت کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

An Exotic Options-Based Approach for Revenue Risk Sharing of PPP Highway Projects

نویسندگان [English]

  • Aida Rahimi Golkhandan 1
  • Mahmoud Golabchi 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Project and Construction Management, School of Architecture, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Project and Construction Management, School of Architecture, University of Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Revenue risk sharing is a challenging issue in PPP highway projects that can be addressed by the options theory. The objective of this study is going beyond the common standard options by suggesting a set of exotic options suitable in modeling the revenue risk sharing mechanisms of PPP highway projects, and proposing evaluation and comparison techniques of these mechanisms. First, a series of semi-structured interviews are conducted to collect the experts’ judgments on the implication of each exotic option for the revenue risk sharing mechanisms of PPP highway projects. Then, through a content analysis of the interviews, the applications of these exotic options in the context of highway projects are identified and their risk sharing mechanisms are designed. The Geometric Brownian Motion and the Monte Carlo simulation are employed for forecasting the revenues and payment valuation of the options during the operation of highway projects. The application of the proposed mechanisms is tested in a real BOT highway project. The developed mechanisms and their quantitative evaluation techniques demonstrate their efficacy in supporting both public and private stakeholders of PPP highway projects in revenue risk sharing by (a) designing revenue risk sharing mechanisms, (b) simulating future revenues, (c) calculating the ultimate payment of options-based revenue risk sharing mechanisms, and (d) evaluating the risk spectrums of stakeholders with diverse risk appetite tendencies. Lastly, this study represents how exotic options can enhance the capability, flexibility, and precision, of revenue risk sharing mechanisms of PPP highway projects which can guide both parties to a win-win situation through a revenue risk sharing structure that considers their requirements and strategies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exotic Options
  • PPP Highway Projects
  • Revenue Risk Sharing
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