تحلیل شدت حوادث جاده ای با توجه به نوع خودور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سمنان، سمنان، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سمنان، سمنان، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سمنان، سمنان، ایران

10.22034/tri.2022.119318

چکیده

ایمنی جاده یک مساله شناخته شده هم برای کشورهای توسعه یافته و هم در حال توسعه است. از سه عامل جاده، خودرو، و راننده که در شکل گیری تصادفات جاده ای نقش دارند، این تحقیق نقش خودروها را در شدت حوادث مورد تحلیل قرار داده است. بدین منظور ابتدا رتبه بندی نوع وسیله مقصر با استفاده از روشهای تصمیم گیری چند شاخصه انجام شد و مشخص گردید که بالاترین شدت تصادف مشترکا مربوط به " تانکرهای سوختی حامل مواد خطرناک و قابل اشتعال " و "دوچرخه یا موتور سیکلت" است اما از آنجائیکه بیشترین فراوانی حوادث جاده مربوط به خودروهای سواری بود، در بخش دوم مطالعه به رتبه بندی شدت تصادف انواع خودرو سواری پرداخته شد. رتبه بندی خودروها تحت دو سناریوی وزن دهی برای خودروهایی که دارای فراوانی تصادف بالاتری بودند، انجام شد و رتبه نهائی از نظر شدت حوادث جاده ای با استفاده از روش کپ لند تعیین گردید. در ادامه تاثیر متغیر سن راننده نیز با استفاده روش آنالیز واریانس مبتنی بر اندازه گیری مکرر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و مشخص گردید که سن راننده نیز بر احتمال جرحی یا منجر به فوتی بودن تصادف تاثیر گذار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Severity Analysis of Road Accidents Based on Car Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Jahan 1
  • Afshin Abbaspour 2
  • Sorush Safakhah 3
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran.
2 M.Sc., Grad., Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Semnan Branch, Semnan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In our rapidly urbanizing world where the city dwellers need to travel either short or long distances by their vehicles, road safety has become at the heart of the attention of authorities in both developed and developing countries. As automobile becomes affordable nowadays, the number of personal cars increasing, and the expectancy of the car crash is rising spontaneously. The chief reasons for road incidents and car crashes can be investigated among road, vehicle, and drivers simultaneously. In this study, we only concentrate on the effects of vehicles on the severity of accidents. At first and by utilizing multi attribute decision making techniques, the ranking of each vehicle by models that was the culprit of incidence was determined. By analyzing the results, it appeared that trucks carrying dangerous and flammable materials, bicycles and motorbike s have dedicated the highest crash severity to themselves. Though the most common road accident was among those cars owned by someone, in the second part of the study, the severity of car crashes investigated among personal cars. Vehicle ranking performed under two weighting scenarios for those cars with a higher accident frequency, and the final rank was determined for the severity of road accidents by employing the Copeland method. Furthermore, the effect of driver age variable was evaluated using repeated-measures analysis of variance and it found that driver age also had an impact on the probability of casualty or fatality occurrence.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Road accident
  • vehicle ranking
  • incident severity
  • repeated-measures ANOVA
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