نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استادیار، مرکز تحقیقات وزارت راه، مسکن و شهرسازی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران
3 دانشآموخته کارشناسی ارشد، مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
The use of futuristic approaches in order to study the effects of the construction of breakwaters on neighboring community makes it necessary to pay attention to the issue of scenario planning. Scenario writing is a very effective and useful way to plan for the medium and long term in uncertainty situations. The aim of this study is to investigate possible scenarios in order to improve the impact of breakwaters on the socio-economic aspects of the life of neighboring community. This is an applied purpose study which is considered an analytical method based on its nature. The required data were obtained through investigation of scientific literature and Field Observations. A questionnaire was distributed among executive officials to compile the scenarios. Collected data was analyzed using MIC-MAC software. According to the Structural analysis of MIC-MAC software, geographical location and its properties has the most impact on dynamics of the breakwaters. Based on uncertainty, the factors "use of breakwaters", "management of breakwaters", "interaction between relevant institutions and beneficiaries" and "fair distribution of facilities", play an important role in the way that breakwaters affect the neighboring community. The combination of these axes formed four scenarios called gold, silver, bronze and gray. In the first scenario, called the Golden Consequences, the efficient functioning of the relevant institutions and the balance between socio-economic components will lead to the Develop a brilliant future in neighboring breakwaters communities. The best impact of the construction of breakwaters is described in the Gold scenario.