نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 مربی، مرکز تحقیقات راه، مسکن و شهرسازی، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
The transportation sector is one of the basic sectors of any economy and investing in this sector increases the mobility of labor and capital and leaves positive side effects on other sectors of the economy. Due to the importance of the issue, in this research, investment in the transportation sector in conditions of production uncertainty has been examined. For this purpose, EGARCH model has been used to calculate production uncertainty and to estimate the main model, the autoregression model with distributed intervals has been used and with the help of EVIEWS10 software, the model has been estimated and the results have been interpreted.
The results show that there is a conditional variance heterogeneity in production and this means the existence of production uncertainty. Also, the results of model estimation show that both in the short run and in the long run, with the added value of the transportation sector, the investments made in the transportation sector will increase. Investment in the transportation sector also decreases as production uncertainty increases in both the short and long term. Also, both in the short run and in the long run, exchange rates, inflation rates and interest rates have a negative impact on investment in the transport sector. Also, according to the error correction factor in the ECM model, it can be stated that the adjustment speed towards the equilibrium and long-term value is appropriate, so that in each period about 0.778 the imbalance error is adjusted and the short-term value towards its equilibrium and long-term value exponentially He wants to. The model is also examined in the continuation of diagnostic tests.