مدل تشکیل زنجیره‌های‌ سفر با استفاده از برنامه‌های فعالیت خانوار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه عمران - برنامه‌ریزی حمل‌ونقل، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

برنامه فعالیت افراد و خصوصیات آنها در مدلهای حملونقلی و رفتارهای مربوط به سفر آنها نقش مهمی دارد و درنظر گرفتن افراد به صورت منفرد بدون لحاظ کردن نقش آنها در خانوار و تأثیرات سایر اعضای خانوار بر آنها از دقت و اعتبار مدلهای حملونقلی میکاهد. لذا در این مقاله دو مدل مجزا ساخته شد که در یکی از آنها فرد در قالب خانوار و در دیگری هر خانوار به عنوان واحد تصمیم گیرنده درنظر گرفته شدهاند. اطلاعات مورد استفاده در این پژوهش از پرسشگری خانوارهای واشنگتن بود . مدلها از نوع لوجیت چندجملهای ساخته شد که الگوی فعالیت روزانه افراد یک بار برای تشکیل زنجیره سفر افراد با استفاده از برنامه فعالیتهای خانوار و بار دیگر برای سفرهای اشتراکی خانوارها درنظر گرفته شد تا مطلوبیت گزینههای انتخابی ممکن برای هر فرد و خانوار محاسبه شده و با سایر گزینهها مقایسه گردد. مدل تشکیل زنجیره سفر با هفت هدف فعالیت "کار، تحصیل، همراهی (اسکورت)، کار شخصی (کار آزاد و کارهای مجازی با گوشی و اینترنت)، خرید، وعده غذایی و اجتماعی/تفریحی" و با متغیرهایی در دستهبندیهای "نوع افراد، گروه سنی، درآمد خانوار، ترکیبات خانواری، جنسیت/فرزند" و مدل دوم یعنی مدل سفرهای اشتراکی با سه نوع الگوی فعالیت "اجباری، غیراجباری و ماندن در خانه" و با درنظر گرفتن تعاملات اعضای خانوار در سه سطح "فردی، دو نفره و سه نفره" ساخته شده و در نهایت تأثیر متغیرها و مشخصههای فردی و خانواری در هر یک از این مدل-ها مورد تحلیل و بررسی قرار گرفته و ملاحظه گردید که در مدلها، هریک از این پارامترها به طرز قابل توجهی بر مطلوبیتها و انتخابهای افراد و خانوارها تأثیرگذار هستند. یقیناً این نوع نگرش تعاملی جدید در تعریف نقش خانوار، تأثیر قابل توجهی در واقعگرایانه بودن مدلها و در نتیجه پیشرفت و توسعه در مدلسازی و برنامهریزی حملونقل خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the Formation of Trip Chains Using the Household Activity Plans

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahriar Afandizadeh 1
  • Houria Ahmadi 2
  • Hamid Mirzahossein 3
1 Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc., Student, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Civil - Transportation Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract

The activity plans of individuals and their characteristics play an important role in transportation models and realated travel behaviors. Therefore, considering people individually without taking into account their role in the household and the effects of other household members on them reduces the accuracy and validity of transportation models. Therefore, in this paper, two separate models were developed, in one of which the individual was in the form of a household, and in the other, each household was considered as a decision-making unit. The data used in this paper was from a Washington household survey. The models were the multinomial logit in which the daily activity patterns of individuals were once considered to form a trip chain of individuals using the household activity plans and again for shared trips of households to calculate the utility of possible choice options for each individual and household and compare them with other options. The trip chain formation model was built with seven activity objectives of "work, education, companionship (escort), personal work (self-employment and virtual work with phone and internet), shopping, food, and social/recreational" and variables in categories of "type of individuals, age group, household income, household composition, gender/child," and the shared trip model was built with three types of activity patterns of "work, education, companionship (escort), personal work (self-employment and virtual work with phone and internet), This kind of behavior in the home and with other people will definitely have a big effect on how realistic the models are and, as a result, on progress and growth in the transportation planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Daily Pattern of Individuals
  • Household Activity Plan
  • Trip Chain
  • Shared Travel
  • Utility

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