پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

مدل‌سازی سطح شدت حوادث وسایل‌نقلیه کامیونی با استفاده از روش رگرسیون لجستیک باینری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکدۀ فنی- مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران
2 استادیار، بخش مهندسی عمران، دانشکدۀ فنی- مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران
3 دانشیار، بخش مهندسی عمران، دانشکدۀ فنی- مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران
چکیده
پیش‌بینی شدت آسیب تصادف به دلیل تأثیر آن بر جان انسان‌ها یک هدف تحقیقاتی اطمینان‌بخش در ایمنی ترافیک و از اولویت‌های اصلی محققان ایمنی برای کاهش شدت تصادفات است. به دلیل نگرانی‌های ایمنی ناشی از کامیون‌های بزرگ و نرخ بالای تصادفات فوتی این نوع وسایل نقلیه، کاوش در تصادفات آن‌ها می‌تواند به تعیین عوامل مؤثر در شدت تصادفات کمک کند. مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از سامانه داده‌های اطلاعات ایمنی راه (HSIS) در ایالت کالیفرنیا آمریکا، بر تصادفات کامیون‌های بزرگ برای پیش‌بینی عوامل مؤثر بر شدت آسیب تصادفات تمرکز دارد. متغیرهای پیش‌بینی‎کننده به چهار مشخصه راننده، راه، تصادف و وسیله‌نقلیه طبقه‌بندی شدند. در این مقاله با استفاده رگرسیون لجستیک باینری (BLR) به مدل‌سازی سطح شدت تصادفات و ارزیابی وزن متغیرهای مختلف پیش‌بینی کننده بر شدت آسیب پرداخته می‌شود. براساس نتایج مدل‌سازی‌، متغیرهای آب‌وهوا در شرایط صاف، AADT در دو حالت بیش از 250 هزار وسایل‌نقلیه بر روز و بین 100 هزار تا 250 هزار وسایل‌نقلیه بر روز دارای اهمیت بیشتر هستند. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد مدل‌سازی BLR دارای دقت و برازش مناسب است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Modeling the Severity Level of Truck Crashes Using Binary Logistic Regression Method

نویسندگان English

Seyed Amir Mohammad Hosseini 1
SeyedSaber NaserAlavi 2
Navid Nadimi 3
1 M.Sc., Grad., Civil Engineering Department, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده English

It is one of the main priorities of safety researchers to reduce the severity of crashes by predicting the severity of crash damage. Large trucks pose safety concerns and are responsible for a high percentage of fatal crashes, so studying their crashes can help determine factors that contribute to crash severity. This study examines factors affecting the severity of large truck crashes in California using the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS). Driver, road, crashes, and vehicle characteristics were categorized as predictive variables. In this study, binary logistic regression (BLR) is used to model the level of severity of accidents and evaluate the weight of various predicting variables on the severity of injuries. Typically, various classical econometric methods are used to model the severity of accidents. Following is a discussion of how the modeling can be evaluated and optimized. Based on the modeling results of this research, the first three variables that are more important than other variables include: weather in clear conditions compared to the weather in other cases such as snowy conditions (with an exponential coefficient of 1.146), AADT in two cases more than 250,000 vehicles per day (with an exponential coefficient of 1.341) and between 100,000 and 250,000 vehicles per day (with an exponential coefficient of 1.202) are less than 100,000 vehicles per day compared to AADT (all three mentioned variables were statistically significant and had positive regression coefficients). Despite the overfitting caused by binary logistic regression, this model performs well on the data set of this study (the difference between accuracy of test and training data is 0.1%).

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Severity of Accidents
Trucks
Safety
HSIS
BLR
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