پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

بهینه‌سازی زمان توقف اتوبوس‌های خط ویژه در ایستگاه‌ها با استفاده از روش رگرسیون و سناریو اکتشافی محور (موردمطالعه: شهر ارومیه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، دانشکده فناوری‌های صنعتی، دانشگاه صنعتی ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
مکان‌یابی مناسب ایستگاه‌های اتوبوس و انتخاب روش مناسب پرداخت کرایه، نقش کلیدی در بهبود زمان توقف اتوبوس دارد. در این پژوهش رویکردی به منظور بهینه‌سازی زمان‌ توقف اتوبوس‌های خط ویژه در ایستگاه‌های واقع در تقاطع‌ها‌ و بین تقاطع‌ با دو شیوه پرداخت کارتی و نقدی ارائه شده است. عدم قطعیت‌های از منابع معتبر استخراج و توسط خبرگان تحلیل شده و دو پیشران کلیدی کلیدی "شیوه پرداخت" و "مکان ایستگاه" شناسایی شد. در ادمه، با استفاده از تحلیل رگرسیونی، زمان توقف اتوبوس‌ها در سناریوهای اکتشافی محتمل پیش‌بینی می‌شود. در نهایت، گزینه‌های استوار به منظور بهبود زمان توقف اتوبوس در ایستگاه‌ها پیشنهاد می‌شود. به منظور اعتبار سنجی رویکرد پیشنهادی، مطالعه‌ای در یک مسیر ویژه اتوبوس با ۲۲ ایستگاه انجام شد. به کمک دو پیشران‌ کلیدی، چهار سناریو ساخته شده و مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. دو سناریوی "بین تقاطع-نقدی" و "تقاطع-نقدی" به ترتیب با متوسط زمان توقف 12.46 و 14.67جهت بررسی انتخاب شدند. بر اساس سناریوهای منتخب، تعداد 14 راهبرد مناسب پیشنهاد شد که در نهایت، 8 گزینه‌ استوار برای کاهش زمان توقف اتوبوس و افزایش دسترسی مسافران به ایستگاه‌ها ارائه ‌شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Optimizing the Stopping Time of Special Line Buses in Stations Using Regression Method and Exploratory Scenario (Case Study: Urmia City)

نویسندگان English

Sohrab Abdollahzadeh 1
Siamak Nabegh Vatan 2
1 Associate Professor‌, Faculty of Industrial Technologies, Urmia University of Technology, Urmia, Iran.
2 Ph.D., Student, Faculty of Industrial Technologies, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Optimal bus stop location and selecting an appropriate fare payment method, play crucial roles in optimizing bus dwell times. This study proposes an approach to optimize the dwell time of buses on bus-only lanes located at intersection and non-intersection stops, utilizing two payment methods: card and cash. Uncertainties were extracted from reliable sources and analyzed by experts, leading to the identification of two key drivers: "payment method" and "bus stop location." Subsequently, regression analysis was employed to predict bus dwell times under various exploratory scenarios. Ultimately, robust options were proposed to optimize bus dwell times at bus stops. To validate the proposed approach, a case study was conducted on a bus-only lane route with 22 bus stops. Using the two key drivers, four scenarios were developed and examined. The scenarios "non-intersection bus stop with card payment" and "intersection bus stop with card payment" were selected for further analysis, with average dwell times of 12.46 and 14.67 seconds, respectively. Based on the selected scenarios, 14 strategic alternatives were proposed, leading to the recommendation of 8 robust options to reduce bus dwell time and enhance passenger accessibility to bus stops.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Bus Stop
Key Driver
Regression Analysis
Robust Strategy
Scenario Planning
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