پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

یک مدل استنتاج عصبی – فازی تطبیقی برای پیش‌بینی تقاضای سفر در اتوبوس و قطارشهری با استفاده همزمان از داده‌های مکانی و زمانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران
2 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی گرگان، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران
چکیده
دسترسی به خدمات حمل‌ونقل عمومی با کیفیت و عملکرد و کارایی بالا مستلزم انواع نوآوری‌ها در برنامه‌ریزی عملیاتی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن است. پیش‌بینی تقاضای مسافر بخشی جدایی‌ناپذیر از عملیات حمل‌ونقل عمومی است، زیرا تقاضا به طور همزمان تحت تأثیر تعاملات پیچیده و غیرخطی بین بسیاری از عوامل مکانی و زمانی قرار می‌گیرد. این مطالعه یک مدل استنتاج عصبی – فازی تطبیقی را با هدف پیش‌بینی تقاضای سفر حمل‌ونقل عمومی به تفکیک نواحی ترافیکی مشهد برای بهبود برنامه‌ریزی عملیاتی در این حوزه توسعه می‌دهد. به دلیل انعطاف‌پذیر و قابل توسعه بودن مدل، امکان ترکیب متغیرهای زمانی و مکانی مختلفی در پیش‌بینی تقاضای سفر فراهم می‌شود. این پژوهش چهار مدل انفیس که با چهار مجموعه داده توسعه داده می‌شوند را ارزیابی و مقایسه می‌کند. به‌طوری‌که دو مجموعه داده یک و دو شامل کلیه متغیرهای ممکن در تحقیق، بدون پیش داوری از تأثیرگذاری آنها بر تقاضا و به ترتیب در افق‌های روزانه و سالانه می‌باشند. مجموعه داده سه و چهار نیز شامل متغیرهای مؤثر دو مجموعه قبلی هستند که به‌منظور شناسایی و انتخاب ویژگی‌های مؤثر بر متغیر وابسته تقاضا از الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی استفاده می‌شود. این اقدام موجب افزایش سرعت در پردازش این مدل‌ها و کاهش خطای آنها می‌گردد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که مجموعه داده شماره چهار که شامل ویژگی‌های مکانی در مقیاس سالانه است، عملکرد بهتری در توسعه مدل پیش‌بینی تقاضای انفیس برای دو سیستم اتوبوس و قطارشهری مشهد دارد. خطای داده‌های آموزش برای این مدل 331/0 و خطای داده‌های آزمایش 095/1است. خروجی مدل‌های پیش‌بینی در این تحقیق، در صورت ایجاد تغییرات در سطح بهره‌برداری از انواع کاربری‌های شهری مشهد، برآوردی از تقاضای حمل‌ونقل عمومی در دو افق روزانه و سالانه و به تفکیک نواحی ترافیکی در اختیار برنامه‌ریزان قرار می‌دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

An ANFIS Model for Integrated Bus and Metro Travel Demand Prediction Using Automatic Data

نویسندگان English

Shariat Radfar 1
Hamidreza Koosha 2
Ali Gholami 3
Atefeh Amindoust 1
1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده English

This research explores the use of machine learning to predict public transportation demand in Mashhad, Iran. Predicting demand is crucial for optimizing operational plans and ensuring efficient service delivery. The complex nature of travel patterns necessitates a model that can account for both spatial (geographic) and temporal (time-based) factors. The developed model utilizes various spatial and temporal data points, offering flexibility and adaptability. The study compares four models built with different datasets. The research employs Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) to identify distinct travel patterns within each time period across the city's 253 traffic zones. Additionally, the random forest algorithm is used to identify and select the features that affect the demand variable. The most effective model leverages spatial data on an annual scale, resulting in highly accurate predictions (training error: 0.331, testing error: 1.095). This model allows planners to estimate public transportation demand across different traffic zones, both daily and annually, in response to potential changes in urban land use.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Destination estimation
Public transportation travel demand prediction
Smart card transaction data
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Spatiotemporal variables
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