پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

مدلسازی فراوانی تصادفات عابرین پیاده در تقاطع های درون شهری با کنترل توقف

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمد کوهی 1
شاهین شعبانی 2
1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران‌، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
10.22034/tri.2024.465277.3255
چکیده
هدف پژوهش حاضر، توسعه مدلی آماری برای پیشبینی تصادفات عابرین پیاده در تقاطع های شهری با کنترل توقف بر اساس مهمترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر تصادفات عابرین است. برای رسیدن به این هدف، مهمترین داده های ایمنی تقاطع های با کنترل توقف در محیط های شهری استان ایلام به عنوان پایگاه داده برای مدلسازی استفاده شده است. روش مدلسازی در این پژوهش، مدلسازی رگرسیونی دوجمله ای منفی بود. بر اساس مطالعات پیشین فهرستی کامل از متغیرهای تاثیر گذار تهیه و با کمک نرم افزار SPSS ضرایب آنها تعیین و سپس متغیرهای معنادار برای مدلسازی انتخاب شدند. متغیرهای معنادار شامل وجود سرعت کاه قبل از تقاطع، وجود پارکینگ در خیابان، تعداد خطوط گردش به چپ، حجم تردد عابرین و ADT بودند به نحوی که پس از ساخت مدل، مشخص شد که تمامی متغیرهای در نظر گرفته شده به استثنای وجود سرعت کاه قبل از تقاطع، دارای رابطه مستقیمی با تصادفات عابرین هستند بدین معنا که با افزایش این متغیرها، تصادفات عابرین افزایش می یابد (اما با وجود سرعت کاه قبل از تقاطع، تصادفات عابرین کاهش می یابد). نتایج ارزیابی عملکرد و اعتبارسنجی مدل با کمک نرم افزار SPPS انجام شد. نتایج آزمون های آماری انجام شده، تایید کامل مدل را نشان داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مدلسازی رگرسیونی
عابرین پیاده
تقاطع با کنترل توقف

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling of Pedestrians Crashes in Urban Stop Control Intersections

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Koohi 1
Shahin shabani 2
1 M.Sc., Grad., Department of Civil Engineering, Payam Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering‌, Payam Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Direct and circular flows in the intersection by creating interference between vehicles and pedestrians have caused these points to have a high potential for pedestrian Crashes. Safety analysis of pedestrians at intersections with different methods such as statistical modeling is of great importance. The aim of the current research is to develop a statistical model for predicting pedestrian Crashes in urban intersections with stop control based on the most important factors affecting pedestrian Crashes. To achieve this goal, the Safety data of intersections with stop control in the urban environments of Ilam province have been used as a database for modeling. The modeling method in this research was negative binomial regression modeling. Based on previous studies, a complete list of influential variables was prepared and their coefficients were determined with the help of SPSS software, and then significant variables were selected for modeling. Significant variables included the presence of hump speed before the intersection, the presence of parking on the street, the number of left turn lanes, the volume of pedestrians and ADT. The performance evaluation results, verification and validation of the model were done with the help of SPSS software. The results of the statistical tests showed the full verification of the model.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Regression Modeling
Pedestrians
Stop Control Intersections
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