نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study analyzes the impact of economic sanctions and shocks on Iran’s transportation sector (2011–2025). It identifies the transmission mechanisms of these effects through the exchange rate channel, distinguishing between long-term equilibrium and short-term sectoral responses. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research examines quarterly data for the transportation Consumer Price Index (CPI), sectoral value-added, and the exchange rate. Cointegration tests were applied to verify stable long-term relationships, followed by Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis. Results confirm a stable long-term equilibrium. The cointegration vector reveals the exchange rate as the dominant determinant of transportation inflation, with a high elasticity of 1.61. Conversely, increased value-added significantly mitigates price pressures. In the short run, the transportation CPI serves as the primary adjustment variable, with an error correction term (ECT) of -0.058. Furthermore, exchange rate fluctuations, with a one-quarter lag, exert a robust impact on sectoral inflation. IRF analysis shows that exchange rate shocks trigger rapid, intense, and persistent increases in the transportation price index, while the impact on value-added remains mild and transient. Sanctions primarily affect the transportation sector by inducing foreign exchange market instability. The dominant transmission mechanism is the cost-push and imported inflation channel, rather than structural changes in real economic activity.
کلیدواژهها English
