تخمین و پیش بینی ترافیک هوایی در کل دنیا

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

حمل و نقل نقطه اتصال چرخه محصولات تولیدی به مصرف و بازمانده مصرف به تولید می‌باشد. توسعه و گسترش این بخش زمینه ساز رشد اقتصادی هر کشوری محسوب می‌شود .آمار نیز حاکی از  رشد سریع بخش حمل ونقل، پیشرفت‌های تکنولوژی و سهم  بالای آن در فعالیت‌های اقتصادی می‌باشد.خدمات این بخش به گونه‌های مختلفی از قبیل جاده ای، ریلی، هوایی، راه آهن، دریایی و خط لوله ارایه می‌گردد که هر یک از این بخش‌ها به دو دسته بار و مسافر تقسیم می‌گردند. ترکیب استفاده از هرکدام از گونه‌های مختلف این خدمت در هر کشور و نیز بهره بردن از ارزش افزوده ناشی از آن‌ها بستگی به ساختار آن کشور دارد. تحولات این بازار به دلیل تاثیر وسیع بر بازار تقاضای انرژی  و نیز رشد و توسعه اقتصادی دارای اهمیت فراوان می‌باشد. در این مطالعه به تخمین و پیش بینی ترافیک هوایی برای کل دنیا و 12 منطقه تا 2030 پرداخته می‌شود. متدولوژی اصلی مورد استفاده در این پژوهش تخمین ترافیک هوایی برای مناطق مختلف دنیا توسط روش اقتصاد سنجی-پانل دیتای مقطعی- می‌باشد. در این بخش بر اساس سناریوهای مختلف پیش بینی از تعداد مسافرت‌ها  تا 2030 برای کل دنیا و 12 منطقه انجام می‌گردد. دادهای مورد استفاده برای حمل و نقل هوایی از سازمان بین المللی هواپیمایی کشوری (ICAO) [i]
به دلیل دارا بودن کامل­ترین پایگاه داده حمل و نقل هوایی داخلی و بین المللی، مسافر و بار (اعم از برنامه ریزی شده و برنامه ریزی نشده) برای سال‌های 1980 الی 2013 جمع­آوری شده است.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimates and Forecasts of World Air Traffic

نویسنده [English]

  • M Keshavarzian
چکیده [English]

Transportation is linkage between production cycles to consumption and remaining production to consumption. The development of this sector is Predisposing economic growth of any country. Statistics also show that the rapid growth of the transport sector advances in technology and high share in economic activities. In this section the services include road, rail, air, rail, marine and pipeline that each of these sections are divided into two categories of cargo and passengers. The Combination of any of these services in each country and Utilization of the added value of it depends on the structure of the country. Due to the great impact on energy demand and economic growth Market developments in this market is important.in this study estimates and forecasts for the entire world and 12 regional by 2030 will be discussed. The main methodology used in this study is panel cross section panel data. In this study prediction of the air traffic demand are based on different scenarios by 2030 for the world and the region is 12. Due to the most complete database of domestic and international, passenger and freight (both planned and unplanned) air transportation we use International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) data.
 
 
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air Traffic
  • oil demand
  • cross section panel data
  • Jjet Fuel Prices
  • the gross domestic product
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