پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

مدل پویای عوامل انسانی و وسیله نقلیه مؤثر بر تصادفات ترافیکی منجر به جرح و فوت در شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران
2 دانش آموخته دکتری‌، مدرسه بازرگانی هنلی، دانشگاه ردینگ، ردینگ، انگلستان
چکیده
ایران در رتبه سوم بیشترین میزان مرگ و میر تصادفات ترافیکی در سطح جهان قرار دارد و عوامل انسانی با سهم تجمعی 90% به عنوان یکی از مهمترین دلایل تصادفات در کنار عوامل وسیله نقلیه محسوب می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارائه مدلی پویا از عوامل انسانی و عوامل وسیله نقلیه مؤثر بر تصادفات ترافیکی منجر به جرح و فوت انجام شده است. داده‌های لازم برای مطالعه عوامل انسانی و وسیله نقلیه با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و مطالعات میدانی به صورت مصاحبه باز با 15 نفر از خبرگان با روش نمونه گیری قضاوتی و هدفمند جمع آوری شده است. پس از مشخص شدن روابط علّی در میان عوامل انسانی و عوامل وسیله نقلیه شناسایی شده با تصادفات ترافیکی مدل پویا بر اساس رویکرد پویایی‌های سیستم در نرم‌افزار ونسیم طراحی گردیده است. به منظور اعتبار سنجی مدل با استفاده از تولید مجدد رفتار سیستم از داده‌های سال‌های 1394 و 1395 اداره پلیس راهنمایی و رانندگی تهران بزرگ استفاده شده و ضریب تعیین داده‌های واقعی با داده‌های حاصل از شبیه سازی 998/0 تعیین گردیده است. برای تحلیل سیاست‌های فعلی و تدوین سیاست‌های آینده مدل در بازه زمانی 1394 تا 1404 اجرا شده و مشخص گردید با حفظ سیاست‌های فعلی بیشترین رشد در تعداد تصادفات در میان عوامل انسانی مربوط به نقص عضو مؤثر و در میان عوامل وسیله نقلیه مربوط به نقص سیستم روشنایی می-باشد. همچنین، بیشترین میزان کاهش تصادفات مربوط به عوامل انسانی مربوط به عجله و شتاب بی مورد می‌باشند. در میان عوامل وسیله نقلیه سه عامل فقدان زنجیر چرخ، فقدان برف پاک‌کن و نقص سیستم فرمان به دلیل سیاست‌هایی همچون سختگیری قوانین و مقررات و فرهنگ سازی با کاهش چشمگیری همراه می‌باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

A Dynamic Model of Traffic Accidents leads to Injury and Death in Tehran Caused by Human and Vehicle Factors

نویسندگان English

Mohsen Shafiei Nikabadi 1
Amir Hakaki 2
1 Professor, Industrial Management Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
2 Ph.D., Grad., Organisations, and Behaviour Department, Henley Business School, University of Reading, Reading, UK.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Traffic Accidents
Human Factors
Vehicle Factors
System Dynamics
VENSIM

Iran is in the third placed of death caused by traffic accidents in the world and human factors and vehicle factors are the most important effective factors on it. This paper aims to present a dynamic model of traffic accidents leads to injury and death caused by human and vehicle factors. To study factors, the data collected by literature review and open interview by
15 experts chosen as researchers’ judgment. Dynamic model is plotted by VENSIM based on system dynamics approach after determining causal relations between human factors and vehicle factors with traffic accidents. To validate the model by system behavior reproduction test, the data collected from traffic police from 2015 to 2016. Coefficient of determination between real data and simulated data determined 0.998. The model was simulated from 2016 to 2026 to analyze current and future policies. As a result, in terms of human factors accidents because of disabled people and in terms of vehicle factors light system have the greatest increase by keeping on current policies. For human factors, the greatest reduction in accidents related to unnecessary rush. Moreover, for vehicle factors, among the vehicle's drivers, the three factors of lack of wheel chains, the lack of a wiper and the failure of the steering system due to policies such as stringent laws and regulations and culture, are significantly reduced.

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