دستیابی به آیندۀ حمل‌ونقل پایدار با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی سناریو (مطالعه موردی: حمل‌و‌نقل درون‌شهری همدان)

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

2 استادیار، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

3 استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

فرایندبرنامه‌ریزیدر بلندمدت،نیازمندبه‌کارگیریرویکردهاینوینیمانندآینده‌پژوهیاست،تاتواناییمقابلهباعدمقطعیت‌هایآیندهراداشتهباشد.شناسایی سیاست‌هایی که به یک سیستم حمل‌ونقل پایدار منجر شود یک چالش عمده برای سیاست‌گذاران است، چرا که این بخش،آکندهازعدمقطعیت‌ها است. پژوهشحاضرباهدف" اولویت‌بندی راهبردهای حملونقل بر اساس معیار پابرجایی در افق 20 ساله" با استفاده از رویکرد سناریونگاری " شبکۀ جهانی کسب‌وکار " انجام گرفته است. جامعۀ آماریپژوهش را30 نفر از خبرگانحوزۀامورشهری تشکیل داد‌ه‌اندکهبا روشنمونه‌گیریگلوله‌برفیانتخاب گردیدند. برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از  مطالعه مستندات، مرور ادبیات، پانل و پرسشنامه استفاده شد. برای سنجش روایی و پایایی پرسشنامه، به ترتیب از قضاوتخبرگانوضریبآلفایکرونباخبهرهگرفتهشد. دونیرویپیشران"میزانحمایتدولتازبخشخصوصی" و" ارزش‌هایجامعه"،بهعنوانمهمتریننیروهایپیشرانشکل‌دهندهبهآیندۀ حمل‌ونقلهمدان،شناساییگردیدندوچهار سناریوی"حمل‌ونقلسبز"،"وابستگیبهخودرویشخصی"،"هرج‌و‌مرج"و"کنترل‌هایسخت‌گیرانه"براساسآندو عامل، توسعهداده شد. برای شناسایی راهبردهای پابرجا نیز از رویکرد منطق فازی استفاده گردید و راهبردهای "ارتقای فرهنگ و رفتار ترافیکی و همچنین افزایش جلب مشارکت شهروندان در حوزه حمل‌ونقل " و "مدیریت پارکینگ و ساماندهی فضای پارک خودروها" به عنوان راهبردهای پابرجا شناسایی شدند. در نهایت به منظور تحقق دو راهبرد پابرجای شناسایی شده، پیشنهادهایی ارایه گردیده است، چرا که سرمایه‌گذاری بر روی دو راهبرد مذکور، می‌تواند ما را، بدون توجه به این‌که در آینده چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد، به اهداف حمل‌ونقل پایدار نزدیک‌تر سازند.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Achievement of Sustainable Transport Future Using Scenario Planning (Case Study: Urban Transportation of Hamedan)

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Ezzati Arasteh Pour 1
  • R. Sohrabi 2
  • A. Samadi 2
  • A. H. Rahbar 3
1 M.Sc. Grad., Faculty of Economic & Social Science, University of Bu Ali Sina, Hamedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economic & Social Science, University of Bu Ali Sina, Hamedan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Accounting, University of Bu Ali Sina, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Long-term planning requires the use of new approaches, such as future studies, to be able to withstand future uncertainties. Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertain. The objective of this paper is “prioritize transport strategies based on robust criteria on the 20-years horizon” using “Global Business Network. Statistical population is of 30 experts in the field of urban affairs which were selected by snowball sampling method. Data gathering tool was documentation study, literature review, panel and questionnaire. Validity of the questionnaire assessed using the judgment of experts and the Cronbach's alpha was used for validation. Two driving forces included “government support for private sector” and ”society merits” were identified as main driving forces shaping transport futures of Hamedan and four scenarios included “green transportation”, “dependence to private cars”, “chaos”, "strict controls" based on two factor were developed. A fuzzy logic approach was used to identify robust strategies. Two strategies included “promotion of culture and traffic behavior and increase participation of citizens in transportation” and “parking management and organize parking space” were identified as robust strategies which have acceptable performance regardless will happen in future. Finally, in order to achieve two robust strategies, proposals were presented.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Studies
  • Scenario Planning
  • Robust Strategy
  • Sustainable transport
  • Hamedan City

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