ارزیابی استفاده از مدل فعالیت‌-مبنا در قیاس با مدل سفر-‌مبنا برای برآورد تقاضای سفر کلان‌شهر تهران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 داﻧﺸﺠﻮی ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ارﺷﺪ، داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻓﻨﯽ و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ اﻣﺎم خمینی (ره)، ﻗﺰوﯾﻦ، اﯾﺮان

2 داﻧﺸﯿﺎر، داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻓﻨﯽ و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ اﻣﺎم ﺧﻤﯿﻨﯽ (ره)، ﻗﺰوﯾﻦ، اﯾﺮان

3 داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻓﻨﯽ و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ اﻣﺎم ﺧﻤﯿﻨﯽ (ره)، ﻗﺰوﯾﻦ، اﯾﺮان

چکیده

با توجه به محدودیتهای مالی و مکانی و مشکلات آلودگیهای زیست محیطی در سطح معابر کلان‌شهر تهران، امروزه بیش از هر زمان دیگری احساس نیاز به استفاده از مدلهای تقاضای سفری میشود که رویکردشان از "پیش‌بینی و عرضه1" به "پیش­بینی و جلو­گیری2" از تقاضا تغییر کند؛ از این رو در این مقاله پس از معرفی سیر تکاملی مدلهای پیش‌بینی سفر، به مقایسهی کمی وکیفی بین دو مدل مهم سفر-مبنا3و فعالیت-‌مبنا4 پرداخته شده است، در انتها نیز از آنجایی که ساخت هر دو مدل سفرمبنا و فعالیت‌مبنا وابسته به ویژگیهای اقتصادی-اجتماعی و اطلاعات سفر افراد است و امکان ساخت هر دو مدل برای شهر تهران وجود دارد، سعی در پیشنهاد مدل مناسب برای پیشبینی تقاضای سفر شهر تهران، با توجه به شرایط این کلان‌شهر شده است. دراین بررسیها مشخص شد که با اینکه مدلهای فعالیت‌-مبنا ابزار مناسبتری برای تحلیل سیاست گذاریهای مختلف بر روی تفاضای سفر شهری هستند، ولی به دلیل ساده سازیهای زیاد در هنگام مدلسازی مفهوم فعالیت و نیازمندی زیاد این مدل­ها به دادهها، ماتریس مبدا-مقصد به دست آمده از مدل های سفر-مبنا به نسبت ماتریس مبدا-مقصد مدلهای فعالیت-‌مبنا، به جریان عبوری خودروهای مشاهده شده در سطح معابر شهر، نزدیک تر است که این امر، نتایج نزدیک تر به واقعیت را مهیا خواهد ساخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Activity-Based and Trip-Based Models in the Estimation of Tehran Metropolitan Travel Demand

نویسندگان [English]

  • M.M. Yaghoubi 1
  • A.A. Rassafi 2
  • H Mirzahossein 3
1 M.Sc., Student of Transportation Planning, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Associate Professor and Faculty Member of Imam Khomeini International University
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

 
Considering the financial and spatial limitations as well as the issues caused by environmental pollutions throughout the metropolitan city of Tehran, a need for employing travel demand models seems essential more than ever; in these models, the “predict and provide” approach in terms of demand must change to “predict and prevent”. Consequently the present study attempts to present the evolution cycle of travel prediction models along with offering a quantitative and qualitative comparison between the two importent trip-based and activity-based models. Furthermore, as constructing both the trip-based and activity-based models depend on socioeconomic aspects of individuals as well as their trip information, it is also attempted to suggest a suitable model for predicting the urban travel demands of Tehran, the implementations of which is deemed possible given its specific conditions. Investigations showed that activity-based models were a better means to analyze various policies on urban travel demands. Nonetheless, due to its numerous simplifications when modeling the concept of activity along with its big sample need for data, the origin-destination matrix obtained from trip-based models were closer to the transportation flow seen throughout the city compared to those obtained from activity-based model, This would yield results closer to reality.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trip Based
  • Activity Based
  • Tehran
  • Travel Demand
  • Disaggregate Model

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