نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 مربی، مرکز تحقیقات راه، مسکن و شهرسازی، تهران، ایران
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، مرکز تحقیقات راه، مسکن و شهرسازی، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Exchange rate fluctuations and the resulting uncertainty are one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affect different sectors of the economy in various ways. Given that these fluctuations do not have the same effect on economic sectors, Therefore, in this study, the uncertainty effects of exchange rate on the growth of road transport sector during the period of 1368-97 have been investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of exchange rate changes on the growth of the country's road transport sector. For this purpose, the EGARCH model has been used to calculate exchange rate changes. In addition, the self-regression model with distributive interruptions has been used to estimate the main model. The results show that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of the road transport sector, both in the short and long term. Also, the results of the error correction coefficient show that the adjustment speed of the model is slow. The error correction model is only able to explain 434% of exchange rate fluctuations.