نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation planning process, which, if incorrectly forecasted, lead to waste of national resources and poor infrastructure performance. This paper aims to identify the influential factors of suburban trip generation with mandatory purposes and compare the linear regression, Tobit and Poisson models using the origin-destination travel data of Khorasan, Fars and Tehran provinces in 2015. Results show better or equal performance of linear regression and Tobit models in all travel purposes. The variable of households with more than two vehicles for educational trip production and car ownership per capita for educational trip attraction are significant. Also, the variables of the share of households with more than 2 vehicles and the number of students per capita in car ownership have the greatest impact on the production and attraction of suburban educational trips. The share of people aged between 32-47 years and the number of employee per capita in car ownership have the greatest impact on the production and attraction of work trips, respectively. The population of a district has been significant with a positive sign in trip production of work and educational trips, but its impact on the educational trips is as twice as the work. The number of employee in car ownership per capita has a positive effect on the attraction and production of work trips, but the effect on the attraction is about 4 times the production. Furthermore, the effect of density related to the trip purpose varies in attraction models, so that the effect of industrial density on work trip is almost twice the effect of educational density on the educational trips, which can indicate a greater propensity of people to conduct suburban work trips compare to educational ones which could be used as a policy implication for future.
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