تعیین پیشران های سیاسی راه آهن باری ایران در افق 50 ساله

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته دکترا، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری - بخش مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 دانشیار، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری - بخش مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

عواملی که در آینده­نگاری هر سیستم به­کار می­روند در هر کشور، جامعه، فرهنگ، سیاست و حتی در هر برهه از زمان متفاوت است. شناسایی و برنامه­ریزی برای عوامل تأثیرگذار بر صنعت از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. با شناسایی شاخص­های تاثیرگذار، برنامه­ریزان و سیاست­گذاران تعیین می­کنند کدام شاخص­ها در اولویت قرار دارند. همچنین برای حرکت به سوی هدف اصلی سازمان­ها، شناسایی این شاخص­ها به سیاست­گذاران و برنامه­ریزان برای سرمایه­گذاری و بهینه کردن مهمترین شاخص کمک می­کند.
هدف اصلی این تحقیق شناسایی عوامل سیاسی موثر بر آینده سیستم حمل و نقل ریلی در بخش باری است. در این تحقیق، با کمک  مطالعات کتابخانه­ای، میدانی و روش دلفی عوامل اولیه شناسایی شدند و از نرم افزار Micmac در تجزیه و تحلیل داده­های بدست آمده استفاده شده است. سه مرحله این تحقیق به دنبال ارائه مهم­ترین عوامل سیاسی موثر بر آینده حمل و نقل ریلی در ایران بوده است. در مرحله اول، همه عوامل شناسایی شدند. در مرحله دوم، با استفاده از روش دلفی در سه دوره متوالی اتفاق نظر حاصل شد و در مرحله سوم، با استفاده از نرم افزار Micmac ده عامل خصوصی­سازی، تغییرات دولت(سیاست­های دولت­ها)، عضویت در کنوانسیون­های بین المللی، حمایت از سرمایه­گذاران، ایجادشبکه مدیریت برای ساختار داخلی-بین المللی-قانونی- مالی. برای جابه جایی بار، هزینه احداث خطوط، اصل 44  قانون توسعه کشور، تعارض در فضای سیاسی و استراتژی و اهداف شرکت­های حمل و نقلی به عنوان مهمترین عوامل پیشران برای آینده نگاری سیستم حمل و نقل باری ریلی شناسایی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining political drivers for the freight of Iran's freight railway in the 50-year horizon

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Mansouri 1
  • Ali Morovati Sharifabadi 2
  • Habib Zare Ahmadabadi 2
  • Seyed Mahmoud Zanjirchi 2
1 Ph.D., Grad., Student of Industrial Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
2 Associate University, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting - Department of Industrial Management- Yazd, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The factors used in the foresight of any system vary from country to country, society, culture, politics and even time. Identifying and planning for influential factors in any industry is of particular importance. By identifying influential indicators, planners and policymakers determine which indicators are prioritized. Also, to move towards the main goal of organizations, identifying these indicators will help policymakers and planners to invest and optimize the most important indicators.The main purpose of this study is to identify the political factors affecting the future of the rail transport system in the freight sector. In this research, the identification of political factors of the rail transportation system in the freight sector has been done using a combination of library, field and Delphi studies and Micmac software has been used in the analysis. The three stages of this research have sought to present the most important political factors affecting the future of rail transportation in Iran. In the first step, all factors were identified. In the second stage, using the Delphi method,
a consensus was reached in three consecutive periods, and in the third stage, using Micmac software, eleven factors in three categories were presented as the most important drivers for the future of the rail freight transportation system.
.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Freight Railway
  • Delphi
  • Micmac
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