پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل

مدل‌سازی مسیرهای توسعه‌ راهبردی حمل‌ونقل هوشمند در ایران با رویکرد سناریومحور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان، تبریز، ایران
2 دانش آموخته دکتری، گروه علم اطلاعات و دانش‌شناسی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
چکیده
پایش و ارزیابی میزان تحقق اهداف بلندمدت در سازمان‌ها امری حیاتی است؛ پژوهش حاضر به بررسی و ارزیابی برنامه‌ی راهبردی حمل‌ونقل هوشمنددر ایران با رویکرد سناریومحور آینده‌نگر پرداخته است. این پژوهش با روش آمیخته (کمی–کیفی) و تکیه بر مرور منابع انجام شد. داده‌ها از طریق تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل و سناریونگاری گردآوری شدند و در ادامه با استفاده از نظرات خبرگان حوزه‌ی حمل‌ونقل، تحلیل میک مک و سناریوسازی با سناریوویزاردکار ادامه یافت. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها نشان داد که احتمال وقوع 9 سناریو بیش از دیگر سناریوها است و 297 سناریو احتمال وقوع کمی دارند. از این 9 سناریو، 4 سناریو قوی‌تر بودند. سناریوی اول به عنوان قوی‌ترین معرفی شد. اما این سناریو نشان‌دهنده شرایطی نامطلوب است که تمامی نیروهای پیشران در وضعیت بحرانی قرار دارند. سناریوی دوم، سناریوی سوم و سناریوی چهارم به‌ترتیب در رتبه‌های بعدی قرار گرفتند. به منظور اطمینان از تحقق اهداف تعیین‌شده در سند راهبردی حمل‌ونقل هوشمند در ایران، ضروری است که سازمان‌های مسئول، نسبت به ارتقای سطح سیاست‌گذاری و مدیریت نظام، تجهیز زیرساخت‌های فنی، و تخصیص منابع لازم، اقدامات لازم را انجام دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Scenario-Based Modeling of Strategic Evolution of Intelligent Transportation Systems in Iran

نویسندگان English

Mehdi Mohammadi 1
Ebrahim Emami Qaratapeh 2
1 Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Ph.D., Grad., Department of Knowledge and Information Science, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده English

Since monitoring and evaluating the achievement of long-term goals in organizations is a vital matter, the present study examines and assesses the Strategic Plan for Transportation of Iran using a foresight approach. This research was conducted using a mixed-methods approach (Quantitative-Qualitative), relying on literature review. Data were collected through cross-impact analysis and scenario building. The final analysis was performed using MICMAC and ScenarioWizard software, as well as the opinions of transportation experts. Data analysis using ScenarioWizard software indicated that the probability of occurrence for 9 scenarios was higher than for others, and 297 scenarios had a low probability of occurrence. Among these 9 scenarios, 4 scenarios were identified as stronger. The first scenario was introduced as the most dominant; however, this scenario depicts an undesirable situation where all driving forces are in a critical state. The second, third, and fourth scenarios were ranked sequentially afterward. To ensure the fulfillment of the objectives set out in the National Intelligent Transportation Strategic Document, it is essential for responsible organizations to take immediate action regarding the enhancement of policy-making and system management levels, the provision of technical infrastructure, and the allocation of necessary resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Intelligent Transportation
Iran
Scenario-Based Planning
Strategic Foresight
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